Read Projection balances and cash flow

Projection is the year-by-year explanation of the plan

Projection follows one saved scenario through annual planning years. It brings together work income, Social Security, pensions, other benefits, spending, healthcare, taxes, contributions, property, debt, account withdrawals, and ending balances. Its greatest value is not the final number; it is the ability to trace a result back to the year and assumption that caused it.

The projection is deterministic. It uses the selected fixed-return or historical path and therefore tells one internally consistent story. It does not show how widely outcomes could vary under uncertain markets and inflation. Make this baseline understandable before using Stochastic Analysis to study uncertainty.

A planned withdrawal is not the same as an unfunded shortfall

Retirement income often does not cover retirement spending by itself. The plan may intentionally withdraw from savings, so a negative income-minus-spending figure is an operating deficit, not automatic failure. A funded deficit has available accounts and permitted withdrawals that close the need.

A shortfall is the amount still unfunded after modeled income, cash, and available withdrawals are exhausted. That deserves attention, as does an income source that starts or stops in the wrong year, a restricted account used for ordinary spending, or a result that depends on an assumption the household would not accept.

Begin with the first surprising year rather than the largest later symptom. An early missing benefit or duplicated expense can distort every subsequent balance.

Read each transition as a cash-flow story

Start with the final working year and first retirement year. The retirement date is the inclusive last day worked; date-linked salary, contributions, retirement-start benefits, and main medical coverage are prorated by actual calendar days in that transition year. Then examine Social Security and pension starts, Medicare transitions, required distributions, a home purchase or sale, debt payoff, one-time goals, and the first survivor year.

Use Summary for orientation and Detailed view for reconciliation. Detailed shows each named income stream, recurring spending category, one-time expense, tax component, funding calculation, withdrawal, and account balance. If a taxable withdrawal is larger than the spending gap, inspect the tax it created. If an account depletes, check the withdrawal policy and which other accounts remain available.

The spreadsheet preserves those calculated columns and adds Cash Flow Detail, where every modeled event has a year, type, source, amount, and available name or owner. Keep the saved plan, strategy, return mode, and dollar basis with any number copied elsewhere.

Distinguish nominal dollars, today dollars, and solvency

Most future rows are nominal amounts for their future years. Inflation may increase spending and other values, but that does not make a future balance directly comparable with today’s purchasing power. Use a clearly labeled today-dollar equivalent when the question is real purchasing power.

A positive ending balance does not prove that every intermediate year was comfortable, taxes were efficient, or the desired legacy was met. Read the first shortfall, lowest liquidity point, large tax years, and account-specific depletion. Conversely, using the portfolio during retirement is not a defect merely because the balance falls.

Estimated after-tax financial-account value at plan end applies the displayed simplified beneficiary ordinary-income tax assumption to modeled accounts. Property and remaining liabilities are shown separately. The figures are not combined into an estate value or the amount an heir will receive.

After correcting an input or policy, save and rerun. A displayed result belongs to the version and assumptions named with it; unsaved edits do not retroactively change an existing projection.

One annual path cannot show every possible future

Projection does not show month-by-month liquidity, exact transaction order within a year, or the range of possible market and inflation outcomes. It cannot prove that cash is available on a particular date or that the selected return path will occur.

The after-tax account estimate excludes property, liabilities, trusts, insurance, probate, estate administration and settlement costs, account-specific beneficiary designations, distribution timing, and estate or inheritance taxes. Use those separate facts and current documents for estate planning; do not treat the account estimate as a beneficiary distribution.

Use it to understand mechanics and timing. Use Stochastic Analysis for uncertainty, source documents for real account and benefit rules, and current professional review for consequential tax, legal, insurance, or investment actions.